§  Strong cyclone brewing over Bay of Bengal by Oct 27-28. West Bengal braces for heavy rain, gusty winds. Latest forecast here

§  Autumn fades as Bay of Bengal low-pressure system strengthens. Cyclone expected Oct 27-28. West Bengal, Kolkata weather forecast & safety tips

§  Bay of Bengal cyclone alert.! Powerful low-pressure system forming, expected to intensify in 48 hours. West Bengal, Odisha weather update Oct 2025

The pleasant autumn breeze that greeted West Bengal residents this week is about to vanish. A powerful low-pressure system is rapidly forming over the southern Bay of Bengal near Indira Point in the South Andaman Sea, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The system is expected to gather strength over the next 48 hours and could transform into a full-fledged cyclone by October 27 or 28, 2025.

Details & Context

·       Weekend Weather Shift in West Bengal

o   Saturday, October 19, marks a partial wind pattern change across the state. The crisp autumn morning will disappear early as moisture levels increase from the morning hours, leading to partly cloudy skies. Day temperatures are forecast to rise by 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to Friday, while night temperatures could climb by about 1 degree.

o   The collision between dry northern winds from North India and moisture-laden easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal will create localized thunderclouds. Coastal districts including East Midnapore, South 24 Parganas and North 24 Parganas may experience moderate rain with thunder and lightning anytime during the day. Coastal areas could face gusty winds up to 40 km/h.

·       North Bengal Rain Forecast

o   Three northern districts—Darjeeling, Kalimpong and Jalpaiguri—are likely to receive light to moderate rainfall. Most districts in North Bengal will see partly to fully cloudy skies with some humid discomfort throughout Saturday.

Bay of Bengal Weather System Development

According to IMD’s North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis, a low-pressure area will likely form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 24. The system is expected to move west-northwestward and intensify further in subsequent days.

·       Weather models indicate a moderate probability (30-40%) of the system strengthening into a depression around October 26. Various global forecasting models support this projection

o   ECMWF model: Predicts low-pressure formation on October 24

o   IMD GFS model: Indicates possible development on October 22

o   NCEP GFS model: Suggests formation on October 21

o   Both ECMWF and NCEP models indicate likely intensification into a depression or cyclone.

·       Potential Cyclone Track

Early indications suggest the system could initially move toward the coasts of north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh. However, it may also travel parallel to the Bay of Bengal, gradually gaining strength before approaching the Odisha-Andhra coast near Gopalpur.

The IMD’s anomaly field indicates an anomalous low over South Odisha during the third week of October, suggesting a possible north-northeastward recurvature of the system.

Quotes

·       Manorama Mohanty, Director of Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre, stated: “We are closely monitoring the anticipated weather system and more details like its further intensity and path will be known in the coming days”.

·       The IMD bulletin emphasized: “There is a favourable environment for cyclogenesis (formation of a depression) over Bay of Bengal next week”.

Additional Information

·       Monsoon Withdrawal Confirmed

o   The IMD officially declared on October 16, 2025, that the southwest monsoon has completely withdrawn from the entire country. This year’s monsoon had advanced into Kerala on May 24—one of the earliest onsets since 2009—and covered the entire country nine days ahead of schedule by July 8.

o   With the monsoon withdrawal, the northeast monsoon has now become active over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala-Mahe.

·       Multiple Weather Systems Across India

o   Several circulation patterns are currently active across the Indian subcontinent

-        Cyclonic circulation over southern Bangladesh and adjoining areas

-        Cyclonic circulation over southern Bihar region

-        Cyclonic circulation over Tamil Nadu coast and Kanyakumari adjoining area

-        Low-pressure system formed over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Ocean, which may intensify over the weekend

A separate low-pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea near Lakshadweep is expected to form around October 18 and could intensify into a depression within 48 hours, bringing heavy rains to Kerala, Karnataka and Konkan-Goa regions.

·       Kali Puja Weather Outlook

o   For Monday, October 21 (Kali Puja day), West Bengal can expect clear autumn skies once again. However, some moisture will linger in the atmosphere, preventing the crisp, chilly morning feel typical of autumn on Monday and Tuesday.

o   From Wednesday onward, dry weather conditions will return. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are expected to bring ideal autumn weather across the state from north to south.

·       Sunday Weather Remains Similar

o   Sunday’s overall weather situation will largely mirror Saturday’s conditions. Kolkata and five other districts in Gangetic South Bengal may experience brief, light rainfall.

·       October Cyclone History

o   Odisha and West Bengal have a long history of devastating October cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal. Notable storms include

-        1999 Super Cyclone (October 29): Left devastating impact on Odisha

-        Cyclone Phailin (2013): October landfall

-        Cyclone Hudhud (2014): October strike

-        Cyclone Titli (2018): October formation

-        Cyclone Dana (2024): Recent October cyclone

Read More: Rahul Gandhi Visits Assam to Honor Zubeen Garg, Demands Transparent Probe into Singer’s Death

Impact Analysis

The formation of another cyclonic system so soon after Cyclone Dana (which made landfall on October 24-25, 2024) highlights the active post-monsoon cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal. October is particularly vulnerable, as the retreating monsoon season creates favorable conditions for cyclogenesis.

·       Agriculture and Daily Life Impact

o   The anticipated weather changes will affect daily life across West Bengal

-        Farmers need to prepare for potential heavy rainfall that could impact harvesting activities

-        Fishermen along the coast should monitor warnings and avoid venturing into rough seas

-        Urban areas like Kolkata may face waterlogging if heavy rains materialize

-        Transport and infrastructure could be disrupted if the system intensifies significantly

·       Air Quality Improvements Expected

o   The expected rainfall could help improve Kolkata’s air quality, which has been hovering in the moderate category (AQI 82-85) in recent days. Rain helps wash away particulate matter, providing temporary relief from pollution.

·       Temperature Variations

o   After experiencing temperatures slightly below normal in mid-October, the state is now witnessing a gradual warming trend. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal during both the coming weeks.

Conclusion

West Bengal stands at a weather crossroads. The brief respite of autumn’s cool embrace will give way to unsettled conditions as moisture from the Bay of Bengal invades the region. While the immediate weekend will see scattered rains and thunderstorms, all eyes are on the developing low-pressure system that could evolve into a significant cyclonic storm by late October.

The IMD continues to monitor the situation closely and residents are advised to stay updated with official weather bulletins as the system develops. The next 48-72 hours will be crucial in determining the cyclone’s exact track, intensity and potential impact on coastal regions.

For now, West Bengal must bid farewell to the fleeting autumn coolness and prepare for the dynamic, unpredictable weather that characterizes the post-monsoon transition period.

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