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§  Winter temperature drop 2025 India

Kolkata: West Bengal is experiencing its coldest temperatures of the season with Kolkata recording a bone-chilling minimum of 17.1°C—a remarkable 3.5 degrees below normal. The maximum temperature has also dropped to 28°C, approximately 2.5 degrees below the seasonal average. The relative humidity has plummeted to just 39 percent, creating dry winter conditions across the state.

The capital city Delhi along with Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana are experiencing severe cold wave conditions. Currently, unrestricted cold northerly winds are dominating West Bengal and this weather pattern is expected to persist for at least the next six days. Western districts are witnessing minimum temperatures hovering between 13-14°C with the winter atmosphere expected to continue through the upcoming weekend.

Cyclonic Disruption Expected After November 21

However, this pleasant winter experience may be interrupted starting November 21, 2025. Atmospheric moisture content is expected to increase significantly as a cyclonic circulation develops over the Bay of Bengal. According to international weather research models, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal around November 23, 2025.​

Within the subsequent 48 hours, this system could intensify into a depression, according to multiple meteorological models. Several international forecasting agencies claim that by November 25, this system may evolve into a full-fledged cyclonic storm. Even if the direct impact doesn’t reach Bengal, cloudy skies and increased relative humidity could temporarily disrupt the winter atmosphere across the region.

The weather models suggest that after this system completely dissipates around December 3, winter conditions could make a strong comeback in West Bengal. However, the Alipore Meteorological Department has not yet issued any official alert or warning regarding this development.

Seven-Day Forecast: Dry Weather Dominates South Bengal

For at least the next seven days, South Bengal will experience predominantly dry weather conditions. There will be minimal temperature variation over the next four to five days. Temperatures are expected to remain two to three degrees Celsius below normal. Cool northwesterly winds from Northwest India will enhance the winter experience.

Light dew at night and shallow fog in early morning hours are possible at scattered locations. The Regional Meteorological Centre in Kolkata predicts that minimum temperatures will stay around 17°C for the next two days before rising slightly by the weekend.

North Bengal Weather Update: Cold Intensifies in Hills

North Bengal is also experiencing predominantly dry weather conditions with no rainfall expected. Temperatures will remain two to three degrees Celsius below normal. There will be no significant temperature change over the next four to five days. In the Darjeeling hill areas, nighttime temperatures are hovering just below 8°C.

Dense fog conditions are expected in the early morning hours across Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar districts. Western districts like Birbhum recorded temperatures as low as 14°C, while Darjeeling hills saw the mercury drop to 8°C.

Extreme Cold Wave Grips Central India

Severe cold wave conditions are prevailing in Madhya Pradesh. Cold wave situations persist in Delhi, Haryana, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, expected to continue until November 15. Delhi’s Safdarjung weather station recorded a minimum temperature of 10.4°C, four degrees below normal and the lowest so far this winter season.

The India Meteorological Department has issued warnings that minimum temperatures could drop 2-3°C below normal at most places until the weekend. In isolated pockets, temperatures may even plunge up to 5°C below normal.

Bay of Bengal System: What to Expect

The cyclonic circulation over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal is currently being monitored by international weather agencies. According to forecasts, this upper air cyclonic circulation could consolidate into a well-marked low-pressure area around November 19-23, 2025.

Weather experts predict that if the system intensifies as expected, it could bring moderate to heavy rainfall to Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and parts of Kerala. The IMD has issued warnings for fishermen to avoid venturing into the sea during this period due to rough sea conditions.

Multiple international weather models including ECMWF, NCEP GFS and regional forecasting systems are tracking this development closely. The convergence of warm sea surface temperatures above 28°C, low vertical wind shear and sufficient moisture inflow are creating favorable conditions for cyclogenesis.

Historical Context: November Cyclones in Bay of Bengal

The Bay of Bengal is one of the world’s most active cyclone basins, particularly during the post-monsoon period from October to November. The region’s warm, shallow waters sustain heat longer than deeper seas, while high humidity and moisture content fuel cyclone development. The enclosed geography traps warm currents, creating ideal conditions for cyclogenesis.

Just recently, Cyclone Montha made landfall on October 28 near Kakinada on the Andhra Pradesh coast, causing significant disruption across Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. The cyclone affected agricultural produce spread over 1.38 lakh hectares, causing losses worth Rs 829 crore and impacting over 1.74 lakh farmers.

Temperature Trends and Records

Kolkata’s temperature history shows interesting patterns for November. In the past decade, the minimum temperature rarely dropped to the 17°C mark during the first fortnight of November. Wednesday’s minimum of 17.2°C equals the lowest November minimum in 2024, which occurred toward the end of the month.

The lowest November temperatures in recent years were 14°C in 2012, 2014 and 2017—all occurring toward the month-end week. In 2024, the lowest November temperature was 17.2°C recorded on November 26. This year’s early temperature drop has raised hopes for a colder winter, though meteorologists caution against drawing direct correlations.

Impact on Agriculture and Daily Life

The current cold conditions, while pleasant for residents, require precautions for vulnerable populations including the elderly, children and those with chronic health conditions. Health advisories recommend staying warm and avoiding exposure during early morning and late-night hours when temperatures are lowest.

Farmers are advised to implement light and frequent irrigation in the evening for standing crops to protect them from low-temperature stress or cold injuries. The dry conditions are generally favorable for most winter crops, though the potential cyclonic system could bring unexpected changes.

Transportation networks may face disruptions as fog formation becomes more frequent over the Indo-Gangetic plains. Railway and aviation operations, particularly around major hubs, could experience delays if cold wave conditions continue with reduced visibility.

READ MORE: Cold Wave Warning in Delhi, Kolkata Temperature Falls Below Normal as Winter Intensifies Across Bengal

Weather Forecast: Week-by-Week Breakdown

·       November 13-15, 2025: Dry weather prevails across West Bengal with minimum temperatures 2-3°C below normal. Clear skies dominate with light morning fog in coastal areas.

·       November 16-20, 2025: Continuation of dry weather with stable temperatures. Winter atmosphere strengthens as cold northwesterly winds maintain their dominance.

·       November 21-23, 2025: Potential disruption begins as moisture levels increase. Low-pressure area formation over Bay of Bengal expected around November 23.

·       November 24-27, 2025: System may intensify into depression or cyclonic storm. Increased cloudiness and humidity could temporarily reduce winter chill across Bengal.

·       November 28-December 3, 2025: System weakens and dissipates. Winter conditions expected to make a strong comeback across the state.

Expert Analysis and Predictions

H.R. Biswas, Director of the Regional Meteorological Centre Kolkata, explained that while the mercury is expected to remain around current levels with a possibility of marginal dip in the next two days, there could be a slight rise by the weekend due to a change in wind pattern. “We are likely to get a north-easterly wind component after a few days, which will prevent the temperature from falling further,” Biswas stated.

Weather expert Rabindra Goenka noted that winter in South Bengal is primarily due to cold north-westerly winds, while North Bengal follows a completely different weather pattern. The cold conditions in Kolkata and rest of South Bengal are determined by the cold conditions in central and northern India, from where the northwesterly wind brings the chill.

Conclusion: Enjoying Winter While It Lasts

West Bengal residents should make the most of the current pleasant winter conditions, as the developing weather system over the Bay of Bengal could bring temporary disruption to the cold atmosphere starting late November. While the direct impact on Bengal remains uncertain, increased moisture and cloudiness are likely to affect the winter experience.

The next two weeks will be crucial for monitoring the evolution of the Bay of Bengal system and its potential impacts on regional weather patterns. Stay updated with official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and local weather authorities for the most accurate and timely information.

Whether you’re planning outdoor activities, agricultural operations or simply enjoying the winter season, keeping an eye on these weather developments will help you prepare for any changes ahead.

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